15 Sep 2023 TwentyFour Blog ECB: That's All Folks? Felipe Villarroel argues that it will not be long before we see yields in fixed income assets at levels markedly above spot inflation which could translate in investors racing to lock in those yields. Read more
11 Sep 2023 TwentyFour Blog ECB’s turn to skip? Dillon Lancaster comments on the divergence in views from ECB members, and whether the end of the week will see a 'skip' or 'hawkish pause'. He believes either outcome is not likely to have a huge effect on the market. Read more
24 Aug 2023 TwentyFour Blog Poor PMI data weigh on soft landing narrative Felipe Villarroel shares his thoughts on the recently released preliminary PMI data, which he concludes is a reminder that the hiking cycle only started 18 months ago and there are lags that are yet to be felt in the real economy, reiterating some of his previous views. Read more
21 Aug 2023 Viewpoint Fixed income opportunities in a soft landing scenario After a difficult 2022, bonds may be poised for unusually high returns compared to historic averages. And not just in the US -- we see opportunities in European CLOs and RMBS. They offer double digit yields for short-dated debt and look very attractive on a relative value basis compared to domestic credit. Read more
4 Aug 2023 TwentyFour Blog Diverging dynamics in savings ratios As governments around the world provided support in various manners during the pandemic, savings ratios increased to levels that were twice as large as the previous all time highs in some countries. Felipe Villarroel takes a look at some countries' spending vs savings monthly data patterns and lays out what he thinks this means for fixed income investors. Read more
27 Jul 2023 TwentyFour Blog ECB's bank lending survey has something for everyone Felipe Villarroel gives an overview of what he believes to be important features of the survey, reflecting on both the good and the bad news. Read more
24 Jul 2023 TwentyFour Blog PMIs below expectations in Europe and the UK Felipe Villarroel looks at the preliminary numbers for July PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services data, and how from a markets point of view, he thinks volatility will remain in place while both rates and spreads should trade in a range as we await for more clarity on whether inflation will allow Central Banks to pause and the extent of the slowdown in H2, particularly considering August is looming. Read more
19 Jul 2023 TwentyFour Blog Reinvestment risk growing, along with the soft landing narrative What level of risk are investors willing to take? As central bank rates hike and a soft landing narrative makes its way into analysts’ forecasts, Eoin Walsh takes a look at what affects this has on investment risk and reinvestment risk. Read more
21 Jun 2023 TwentyFour Blog Rainbows from Barca Last week Aza Teeuwen and our ABS team visited the Global ABS conference in Barcelona. One key discussion point in CLOs was around the lack of leveraged loan supply and the resultant sharp slowdown in the primary market Read more
16 Jun 2023 TwentyFour Blog Central Banks did not rock the boat In a week with several important releases and monetary policy decisions, what have we learnt? Read more
13 Jun 2023 TwentyFour Blog BBVA take a significant step forward for AT1s BBVA have announced they are issuing a new AT1. What does this mean for the market? Eoin Walsh believes this could be the catalyst investors have been waiting for to help AT1 spreads grind tighter. Read more
8 Jun 2023 TwentyFour Blog European consumers not expecting a hard landing What have we learnt from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey? Felipe Villarroel discusses how latest changes in the consumer’s expectations of the economy reflect that the ECB’s monetary policy is actually working. Read more