Asset Allocation

Spread tightening has left some market participants nervous about fixed income valuations going into 2025, but we think the drivers of recent credit performance are unlikely to weaken materially in the coming months.

From a US high yield (HY) perspective, the month of May turned out to be one of note – for the first time since December 2022, no US HY defaults were recorded, with not one instance of a bankruptcy filing or a missed interest/principal payment.

TwentyFour Asset Management’s Chris Bowie, takes a closer look at how he is thinking about duration within fixed income portfolios and shows how following conventional wisdom on duration might prove costly for some investors this year.

Douglas Charleston, believes 2024 will continue to provide the carry that has been so welcome, but see market growth and diversity continuing to make European ABS increasingly scalable. 

2023 proved to be a second year where European ABS gave investors the strongest returns in fixed income with the benefit of very low volatility. As risk-free rates grew to what we expect to be the peak, income was maximised whilst the various market pivots on rates came and went in the rear view mirror.

While bonds are once again finding their feet, investors have found themselves sitting on cash balances of 30% to 50%. This capital preservation trade has made perfect sense, but does it still make sense as we reach terminal rates?

The most important asset allocation decisions for global investors ought to originate by answering a seemingly simple question: Where in the cycle are we?