In what has been a busy start to 2025, TwentyFour Asset Management’s Gordon Shannon looks back on the final quarter of 2024.

It has been a busy year in fixed income markets, with Q4 2024 proving to be a pivotal period marked by significant global events, including the US election. TwentyFour Asset Management’s Eoin Walsh looks at the path for interest rate cuts in 2025.

Trade wars and geopolitical risk head a list of potential catalysts for spread widening in 2025. However, with a macro backdrop of falling rates and solid global growth, we think credit will continue to outperform government bonds and support healthy total return expectations for fixed income investors.

One of the key reasons we see credit continuing to outperform government bonds over the medium term is corporate fundamentals.

Global rates markets rallied sharply on Wednesday after fixed income investors received some long-awaited good news in the shape of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which came in below consensus in both the US and the UK.

Will volatility in government bonds continue? Has fixed income seen “peak ESG”? And what will be the biggest driver of returns?

Last week Fitch Ratings published a report concerning asset performance deterioration in UK residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) originated prior to the global financial crisis (GFC).

Given modest interest rate cut projections, a stable if not stellar macro backdrop and better relative value than corporate credit, we think European ABS investors can expect another strong year of supply and returns in 2025.