Monetary Policy

In fast-moving markets there is no perfect time to provide an update on valuations.

Given inflation has been running hot for more than a year now, it was no surprise to see the recent dip in US data greeted with a muted sigh of relief across the markets.

We can debate whether the European Central Bank is behind the curve or not, but Christine Lagarde says rates will be in non-negative territory by September.

The Federal Reserve minutes for meetings held on the 3-4th May were released last night, and for markets that have been beaten up by rates volatility, they provided some interesting takeaways.

With investors having endured a painful period of rising yields in 2022, Mark Holman looks at whether rates weakness or credit spread widening has been most to blame.

The broad-based sell-off that has faced investors since the start of this year has been all the more painful because of the breakdown in traditional correlations, which has put conventional hiding places out of reach.

At the beginning of this year you would have struggled to find a single investment bank or asset manager (ourselves included) that thought owning 10-year US Treasuries (USTs) was a good idea.

Since the end of last year, central bank officials have been falling over themselves to increase their hawkishness around rates, particularly in the US. Even the ECB Governing Council members have been vocal of late.

TwentyFour Partner and Portfolio Manager, Gordon Shannon, describes the developments of the investment grade strategy in Q1 2022.

TwentyFour Partner and Portfolio Manager, Eoin Walsh, discusses market conditions in Q1 2022 and provides his outlook for the year ahead.

With inflation running at 40-year highs in many parts of the world, it is easy to get carried away with making comparisons to the dark economic days of the early 1980s. 

As this remarkable cycle rapidly progresses, thoughts have more recently turned to the chances of a US recession in 2023, and whether the Fed can somehow pull off a soft landing.