Monetary Policy

Pierre Beniguel gives his thoughts on some of the deals that have caught his eye from the reopening of the primary market after a quiet summer.

Felipe Villarroel takes a look at what progress, if any, has been made in the labour market and how this resonates with the Fed's projection of labour markets easing while not experiencing a major disruption.

Felipe Villarroel shares his thoughts on the recently released preliminary PMI data, which he concludes is a reminder that the hiking cycle only started 18 months ago and there are lags that are yet to be felt in the real economy, reiterating some of his previous views.

An interesting debate, and topic that is attracting plenty of headlines given the recent volatility is where Treasury yields will ultimately settle, with a renewed focus on the neutral rate. Eoin Walsh explores the previous movements of Treasury yields and what Powell is likely to say at Jasckon Hole.

Bank bonds have been amongst the best performing asset classes in fixed income over the last few months, doing their bit in proving their strength.

Felipe Villarroel gives an overview of what he believes to be important features of the survey, reflecting on both the good and the bad news.

Felipe Villarroel looks at the preliminary numbers for July PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services data, and how from a markets point of view, he thinks volatility will remain in place while both rates and spreads should trade in a range as we await for more clarity on whether inflation will allow Central Banks to pause and the extent of the slowdown in H2, particularly considering August is looming.

Douglas Charleston believes European ABS has once again provided a rare bright spot for fixed income. He explains how, from Q1 to Q2, focuses have shifted, and delves into different macro-economic variables affecting the ABS market.

What level of risk are investors willing to take? As central bank rates hike and a soft landing narrative makes its way into analysts’ forecasts, Eoin Walsh takes a look at what affects this has on investment risk and reinvestment risk.

What sort of landing will the global economy experience? With the recent release of the US CPI report, inflation has been on a downward trend and the resilient activity data has continued to surprise many. This report has acted as a trigger of sorts for increasing calls for a soft landing.

Following the release of the Monthly Labour Market Overview, Felipe Villarroel highlights key takeaways on the tightness of the UK’s labour market. He assesses the changes to the demand and supply of the labour force - focusing on the ‘Inactivty Rate’, “Long-Term Sick” and “Retired” categories, and migration trends - and what this means for wage inflation.

Felipe Villarroel discusses the observations of the median long run rate and what this means for the neutral rate.