Europe

Ballots are still being counted in this weekend’s Italian election but the picture is becoming clear, with two parties emerging stronger from the ashes of a bitter electoral campaign: 5 Star have estimated to have polled 32% and the far right Lega (a.k.a. Northern League) have 18%, but no one coaltion can claim a victory.

Last Friday saw the publication of the last electoral poll before the Italian elections that will be held on the 4th of March.

Our base case for rates markets is a gradual shift higher, but there are reasons to consider why even our forecast is too constructive and the move higher could be more substantial.