Asset-Backed Securities

Last week UK Asset Resolution (UKAR) announced the sale of its final mortgage loan portfolios, bringing to a close a decade long chapter of state ownership.

Fixed income investors increasingly desire their investments to have a positive societal impact, but in the rush to scrutinise the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) credentials of government and corporate bond issuers, we believe the natural ESG advantages of asset-backed securities (ABS) have so far been overlooked.

This deal, backed by a £472m pool of owner-occupied mortgages partially securitised in a previous transaction, drew over £1.2bn of orders and was printed 10-30bp tighter than initial price guidance depending on the tranche, reaching pre-COVID tights.

I think it’s likely we’ll see new cycle tights for the European CLO sector this year, so in addition to healthy income we believe there is plenty of room for capital appreciation as prices are being pushed higher in the secondary market.

In this update, TwentyFour Partner and Portfolio Manager Ben Hayward addresses some of the key reasons he thinks investors should consider allocating to ABS sooner rather than later.

European ABS primary markets have started 2021 at the solid pace that most market participants expected. The market saw a patchy Q4 in which activity petered out early, not helped by the dominant UK market suffering some hesitation whilst tightrope Brexit deal talks went to the wire, but also as a result of a rather more simple fatigue that appeared to have set in.

TwentyFour AM partner and portfolio manager Douglas Charleston discusses Q4 performance for ABS markets and provides his outlook for 2021.

Our analysis indicates European ABS investors can carry forward little concern about nasty default surprises, and this is likely to be important when considering total returns for 2021.

At the moment CLO spreads are tightening, as they are right across credit. However, we haven’t had any CLO primary deals come to market so far in 2021, so we are operating in a bit of an informational vacuum, at which point these cross-asset class comparisons can be useful.

Elena Rinaldi looks back at the performance of European CLOs in 2020 and explains how post-vaccine sentiment should help boost recovery in 2021, providing a positive outlook for CLOs.

So while we certainly expect unemployment to increase across Europe, and we expect more borrowers will fail to pay their mortgages, we believe current mortgage performance is very far away from a level that would threaten coupon and principal payments in the major European RMBS markets.

Having fallen behind other markets in the post-COVID rally due to a lack of direct central bank support, we believe European ABS is set to outperform other parts of fixed income in the coming months as supply wanes and investors look to pick up on what we think could be a compelling relative value opportunity.