25 Jul 2024 TwentyFour Blog Strong UK savings bode well for bonds Excess savings have been at the centre of heated debates among economists and market participants ever since the pandemic. Read more
19 Jul 2024 TwentyFour Blog Politics won’t trump data for the Fed The last few weeks have seen former President Donald Trump establish a lead over current President Joe Biden across polls in the run-up to November’s US election. Even though it is early days and a lot can change before November (including the Democrat candidate), it is worth considering what a second Trump term might mean for the world economy and for fixed income markets. Read more
16 Jul 2024 TwentyFour Blog Wages continue to rein in pace of ECB rate cuts Last month saw the European Central Bank (ECB) get their cutting cycle underway with a 25bp cut in the deposit rate to 3.75%. However, any expectations for a rapid series of reductions after the first move were tempered by President Christine Lagarde, who at the subsequent press conference was clear that the ECB could move in phases in which they left interest rates unchanged. Read more
15 Jul 2024 Market Update Investment Grade Quarterly Update – July 2024 Johnathan Owen, Portfolio Management, defines the second quarter of 2024 as another interesting period for financial markets, marked by the first rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) in June and President Macron's snap election announcement in France. He outlines what these meant for the Investment Grade (IG) team. Watch now
15 Jul 2024 Market Update Asset-Backed Securities Quarterly Update – July 2024 Elena Rinaldi, Portfolio Management, wraps up the second quarter of 2024 for the Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) team. She notes that while financial markets experienced mixed performance and broader volatility, the ABS market remained relatively resilient and delivered strong performance. Watch now
15 Jul 2024 Market Update Multi-Sector Bond Quarterly Update – July 2024 Pierre Beniguel, Portfolio Management, from our Multi-Sector Bond (MSB) team takes us on a journey through market sentiment. He highlights its strength in Q1, the reversal in Q2, and the pivotal role of upcoming data as the main driver of risk sentiment moving forward. Watch now
10 Jul 2024 TwentyFour Blog This strange economic cycle is finally starting to look familiar There is little disagreement among investors and economists that the last few years have been highly unusual in many respects. An inflationary shock in developed markets, one of the fastest rate hiking cycles on record, the worst year in decades for government bonds (2022), and mild recessions with no movement in unemployment are just a few of the dynamics that have strayed from recent norms. Read more
8 Jul 2024 TwentyFour Blog French result supports European spreads but budget concerns remain After weeks of volatility following President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call snap parliamentary elections in France, markets were breathing a sigh of cautious relief on Monday after the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) underperformed the polls. Read more
5 Jul 2024 TwentyFour Blog Labour market cooling justifies Fed’s dovish lean One of the drivers of the dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December was the acknowledgement that the risks to the policy outlook had become more two-sided. In other words, while higher rates were still needed to tame inflation, the Fed saw a risk that staying restrictive for too long and risk damaging a labour market that has so far shown remarkable resilience. Read more
4 Jul 2024 TwentyFour Blog CLO outlook: value remains but watch for greed on pricing Having been the best performing asset class across fixed income in 2023, collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) have spent the first half of this year on similar form with record levels of issuance meeting equally strong demand from a broadening range of investors. Read more
3 Jul 2024 Outlook Why Europe has jumped ahead of the US for fixed income value The forecast-defying strength of the US economy has been one of the key drivers of financial markets in recent quarters, but as economic prospects diverge, Europe is where we see the better relative value in fixed income today. Read more
2 Jul 2024 TwentyFour Blog The Southgate bond strategy – no subs in the second half For any fixed income investors that follow the England football team, the plan for H2 2024 may feel somewhat familiar – no substitutions in the second half. Read more