Banks

Recent economic news may have created a sense of uncertainty across Europe, but Ellie Aylen from our Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) team offers a more optimistic view. According to low-level data from the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB), the actual performance is much more reassuring than what the headlines might suggest.

Johnathan Owen, Portfolio Management, discusses our longstanding carbon emissions engagement policy and its focus on collaborating with companies we believe we can influence. Our goal has been to shape their environmental journey over the medium to long term, leading to a reduction in carbon emissions.

In his latest update on the European high yield market, Pierre Beniguel discusses two key topics: the Maturity Wall and Default Rates. He highlights that as interest rates continue to rise, default rates are projected to increase from 2.5% to around 3%.

Uncertainty is over, it was a 50 basis points (bps) move. As we mentioned in our previous blog, the most important take away from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting would be their assessment of the economy.

We have consistently highlighted the benefits of higher interest rates for the European banking sector. However, the current outlook suggests that lower rates are anticipated going forward.

Yesterday the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25 basis point (bp) cut, their second in the current easing cycle and in line with market consensus.

With the Federal Reserve (Fed) set to begin its long-awaited interest rate easing cycle at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for August was the last big economic release investors could comb for clues as to the size of the first cut.

Earlier this week the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) proposed scrapping Additional Tier 1 (AT1) instruments and not replacing them with any other form of junior debt, with the consultation paper suggesting that instead Australian banks could fill their 1.50% AT1 allowance with a combination of Tier 2 (1.25%) and Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital (0.25%).

Any market participants hoping for a quiet few days to ease back into “work mode” after the summer break have had to rapidly adjust their expectations.

When the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates for the first time in four years earlier this month, we thought the move – made on a knife-edge 5-4 vote – had come a little too early.

Market attention in the government bond market has rapidly turned from central banks holding rates “higher for longer” to the potential for “lower and sooner".

Julius Baer announced a call of its $300m Additional Tier 1 (AT1) instrument. The bond had a coupon of 4.75%, and if not called it would switch to a new coupon of five-year Treasury yield plus 284 basis points (bps), so about 6.7% at the moment.