Multi-Sector Bonds

Since the Federal Reserve first cut interest rates in September, we have seen the most aggressive rise in US Treasury yields of any cutting cycle over the past 40 years.

It has been a busy year in fixed income markets, with Q4 2024 proving to be a pivotal period marked by significant global events, including the US election. TwentyFour Asset Management’s Eoin Walsh looks at the path for interest rate cuts in 2025.

Trade wars and geopolitical risk head a list of potential catalysts for spread widening in 2025. However, with a macro backdrop of falling rates and solid global growth, we think credit will continue to outperform government bonds and support healthy total return expectations for fixed income investors.

One of the key reasons we see credit continuing to outperform government bonds over the medium term is corporate fundamentals.

Will volatility in government bonds continue? Has fixed income seen “peak ESG”? And what will be the biggest driver of returns?

Spread tightening has left some market participants nervous about fixed income valuations going into 2025, but we think the drivers of recent credit performance are unlikely to weaken materially in the coming months.

With analysts steadily publishing their projections for 2025 (ours are here), the macro variables that tend to get the spotlight are naturally growth and inflation.

With a macro backdrop of falling rates and solid global growth, TwentyFour Asset Management's Eoin Walsh says fixed income investors can expect healthy total returns in 2025.

In this month's Flash Fixed Income, we look at how bond markets are reacting to Donald Trump's victory in the US election. With Trump's stated policies widely regarded as being inflationary, we expect a bigger divergence in the path for interest rate cuts between the US and Europe that might favour higher quality European credit.

George Curtis (Portfolio Management), from our Multi-Sector Bond team provided a comprehensive understanding of the key aspects of yield curves.

George Curtis from the Multi-Sector Bond (MSB) team at TwentyFour Asset Management reflects on the third quarter of 2024 and its impact on credit and equity markets. Despite some mid-quarter volatility, overall performance remained strong, with government bonds leading the way.

With cracks starting to show in the US economy, many are wondering whether tight corporate bond spreads leave investors vulnerable. But with corporate balance sheets holding firm and yields on higher quality bonds looking attractive, staying invested in credit should continue to reward investors.