Fixed Income

George Curtis, Portfolio Management, discusses the Multi-Sector Bond team's performance in Q1 2024, highlighting the improved clarity in deciphering central bank actions. With an anticipated central bank rate cut as the next move, the team remain confident in navigating the market's developments.

Following the aggressive rates rally at the end of 2023, Q1 saw notable gains, with inflation surpassing expectations. Johnathan Owen, Portfolio Management, highlights a more promising inflation outlook and its implications for the Investment Grade team. 

Douglas Charleston, Partner & Portfolio Management, concludes the first quarter in 2024 for the Asset-Backed Securities team, noting that while major economies remain resilient, the rates markets have undergone significant shifts, with central banks reassessing their rate cut expectations.

Almost a year ago to the day, we were in the midst of banking sector turmoil, which started off with regional banks in the US and spilled over to Europe, eventually culminating in the forced merger between Swiss banks UBS and Credit Suisse.  

Yesterday was an eventful day for markets. We started off with inflation data in Europe, followed by an earnings release by New York Community Bank that showed large provisions in their commercial real estate loan book, before moving onto the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting

Aza Teeuwen reflects on a busy quarter for the Asset-Backed Securities team, highlighting the primary deals and trading that occurred all the way through the quarter until the end of December, the performance of ABS for the quarter, and his confidence that ABS is in a good position to carry its strong momentum into 2024.

Dillon Lancaster provides an update on the recent events which occurred during Q4 2023, highlighting the volatility in the treasury market which dominated the beginning of the fourth quarter, and the turnaround in November, which saw US inflation fall below expectations and labour data weaken.

After a tumultuous year for fixed income, government bond markets were finally delivering a story of falling inflation in Q4 2023. In our Investment Grade quarterly update, Gordon Shannon reflects on Q4, and in particular the month of December which proved to be one of the strongest months of the year, as hopes of multiple rate cuts in 2024 were accelerated.

Douglas Charleston, believes 2024 will continue to provide the carry that has been so welcome, but see market growth and diversity continuing to make European ABS increasingly scalable. 

2023 proved to be a second year where European ABS gave investors the strongest returns in fixed income with the benefit of very low volatility. As risk-free rates grew to what we expect to be the peak, income was maximised whilst the various market pivots on rates came and went in the rear view mirror.

After a horrible year for financial markets in 2022, the macro-outlook for 2023 had a lot of consensus views, with most predicting a much better year ahead, helped by supportive rate cuts from central banks and positive returns from both government bonds and credit.  

The TwentyFour Advent Calendar is a collection of 24 stats telling the story of fixed income and markets this year. The calendar covers everything from interest-rate rises and record bond issuance to falling house prices and disappearing banks.