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In his latest update on the European high yield market, Pierre Beniguel discusses two key topics: the Maturity Wall and Default Rates. He highlights that as interest rates continue to rise, default rates are projected to increase from 2.5% to around 3%.

Uncertainty is over, it was a 50 basis points (bps) move. As we mentioned in our previous blog, the most important take away from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting would be their assessment of the economy.

We have consistently highlighted the benefits of higher interest rates for the European banking sector. However, the current outlook suggests that lower rates are anticipated going forward.

While the majority of headlines have concerned whether the Fed will do 25bp or 50bp to kick off its cutting cycle, we think this is only one part of the discussion – and not necessarily the most important one.

Yesterday the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25 basis point (bp) cut, their second in the current easing cycle and in line with market consensus.

With the Federal Reserve (Fed) set to begin its long-awaited interest rate easing cycle at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for August was the last big economic release investors could comb for clues as to the size of the first cut.

Earlier this week the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) proposed scrapping Additional Tier 1 (AT1) instruments and not replacing them with any other form of junior debt, with the consultation paper suggesting that instead Australian banks could fill their 1.50% AT1 allowance with a combination of Tier 2 (1.25%) and Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital (0.25%).

Eoin Walsh delivered the keynote address at TwentyFour Asset Management’s Annual Conference in London on September 10, 2024.

We struggle to recall a more eagerly awaited US labour market report than that published last week. Stakes were high given the previous report showed a steep rise in unemployment and caused market mayhem in early August, but anyone hoping for a conclusive picture was left disappointed as a mixed set of figures left the strength of the US economy open to interpretation.

Any market participants hoping for a quiet few days to ease back into “work mode” after the summer break have had to rapidly adjust their expectations.

Given almost half of the world’s population resides in a country staging an election this year, 2024 was always likely to throw up a series of political headlines.

The start of the school year ordinarily also marks the end of summer for the primary bond markets as issuance restarts, though this year feels rather different.