US

It is that time of year when we traditionally look ahead to the new year and make predictions on the performance of various asset classes, sectors and industries.

There were sharp declines across global risk assets on Tuesday, led by tech stocks but with barely an asset class left unscathed.

A question we have been getting more frequently for from clients in recent weeks concerns US Treasuries, and more specifically how the level of UST issuance (and where along the maturity curve it arrives) will impact yields both in the rates market and further afield in the coming months.

A volatile last couple of weeks have certainly kept fixed income investors fastened firmly in their seats, with comments from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell suggesting US monetary policy was “nowhere near neutrality” sending shock waves through global rates, credit and equity markets.

Having listened carefully to the FOMC news conference last night, the message to us was clear – the Fed is pushing ahead with its normalisation of rates and the gradual shrinking of its balance sheet.

Those of you who have seen or heard one of our presentations will be aware of the significant impact that the FX-basis currently has on our relative value bond selection.

A few weeks ago we wrote about the geopolitical risks helping to keep credit spreads wider in Europe and the UK and keeping a lid on US Treasury yields (Is It Time to Buy the Dip?).

Last year, with credit spreads tightening close to historic levels, it seemed appropriate to us to take a more prudent stance and move to a more balanced portfolio.

Like many of you we have been following the latest developments in the Tesla story with interest and curiosity, though fortunately not as investors, I hasten to add.

We have had a lot of discussion, both internally and externally, over the last few days around when might be the time to begin adding more risk to portfolios again.

Whilst no hike from the FOMC was expected overnight, markets are still pricing in an eighth hike in September and a ninth in December, which would take the upper bound of the Fed Funds rate to 2.5%.

This significant flattening came about as the Fed signalled its determination to push through policy normalisation, with four hikes now expected for the calendar year 2018, which would take the upper bound of the Fed Funds rate to 2.5% by year-end.