Monetary Policy

With ample job openings, inflation well ahead of target, financial conditions that are certainly not tight and strong economic growth, the obvious question is what does the Fed need to see to finally start tapering its asset purchases?

TwentyFour's CEO, Mark Holman, discusses market conditions in Q2 2021 and provides his outlook for the year ahead.

Whether the Bank of England halts all purchases in August or merely begins to slow the pace of purchasing later in Q4 this year, by 2022, less technical support will exist for gilts.

TwentyFour Partner and Portfolio Manager, Gordon Shannon, discusses how Investment Grade markets have performed in Q2 2021 and provides his outlook for the upcoming months.

It feels like we are currently spending at least 40% of our time talking about inflation, or more accurately, why the US Federal Reserve seems to have a different view of inflation to almost everybody else.

In this video, TwentyFour CEO Mark Holman joins Tom Porter to decipher the Fed’s latest messaging, and to remind bond managers that Jerome Powell is not one of them.

Given the magnitude of the amounts involved we do think there is potential for some temporary volatility in the US Treasury market as the volumes change. We will be keeping a keen eye on both in the months ahead.

While we don’t expect any material spread widening in the near term, we remain extremely wary of higher duration bonds given our view that the potential persistent inflation suggested by recent data isn’t priced into US Treasury yields, which currently sit around 1.58% at the 10-year point.

After unleashing the strongest combined emergency package we have ever seen in 2020, central banks are now entering perhaps the most challenging phase of their COVID-19 response, trying to balance the economic recovery while at the same time having to reassure the markets they can control the threat of runaway inflation.

In TwentyFour's Multi-Sector Bond update on Thursday 13th May 2021, Partner & Portfolio Manager Eoin Walsh provided an update on investment themes and positioning in the fixed income market.

Had this happened a month ago, we suspect the move would be materially more pronounced, and the muted reaction indicates to us that markets are now quite comfortable with the current levels of expected growth, forecast inflation, and yields.

George Curtis discusses how credit markets have performed in Q1 2021 and provides his outlook for the year ahead.