23 Nov 2023 TwentyFour Blog Far-right leader wins Dutch election but markets remain calm The Dutch elections took an unexpected turn as it looks like Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) will gain 20 seats and become the largest party with 37 of 150 seats. Read more
27 Oct 2023 TwentyFour Blog Fundamentals show European banks well set up as bonds are still cheap Whilst bank debt has recovered from the contagion of the US regional banking crisis and the Credit Suisse write down event earlier this year, many bonds are still trading wider than they were at the beginning of the year. Read more
25 Oct 2023 TwentyFour Blog The ECB hiking cycle is likely to be over Yesterday, market participants received two important reports about the state of the economy in the Eurozone. Firstly, the October Markit PMI – Purchasing Managers’ Index - reports showed a continued deterioration in growth in the manufacturing as well as the services sector. Read more
13 Oct 2023 TwentyFour Blog Examined: the case for fixed income in a hard or soft landing Fixed income investors have gone through a stressful few weeks. Since the beginning of September, government bond yields have moved sharply higher, causing spreads to widen and returns to worsen across the board. Read more
11 Oct 2023 Market Update Speed is now of the essence in the bond markets After what can only be described as a relatively dire year for fixed income in 2022, during which spiralling inflation led to one of the most aggressive rate hiking cycles on record, we believe the market for bonds is now looking much healthier. Read more
11 Oct 2023 Event Replay ABS and its relevance in a soft landing environment Our most recent ABS Investor Update webinar, hosted by Douglas Charleston and Aza Teeuwen provided an outlook for the European ABS market and why they think investors should be considering the asset class as a long term investment in an environment where we have reached peak rates and a soft landing is expected. Watch now
27 Sep 2023 TwentyFour Blog That shrinking feeling: Money supply tightens as rate hikes feed through Following the recent publication of the European Central Bank's monthly “Monetary Developments in the Euro Area” report, Felipe Villarroel takes a deep dive into how this report evidences the impact that successive rate hikes are having on the economy Read more
15 Sep 2023 TwentyFour Blog ECB: That's All Folks? Felipe Villarroel argues that it will not be long before we see yields in fixed income assets at levels markedly above spot inflation which could translate in investors racing to lock in those yields. Read more
11 Sep 2023 TwentyFour Blog ECB’s turn to skip? Dillon Lancaster comments on the divergence in views from ECB members, and whether the end of the week will see a 'skip' or 'hawkish pause'. He believes either outcome is not likely to have a huge effect on the market. Read more
24 Aug 2023 TwentyFour Blog Poor PMI data weigh on soft landing narrative Felipe Villarroel shares his thoughts on the recently released preliminary PMI data, which he concludes is a reminder that the hiking cycle only started 18 months ago and there are lags that are yet to be felt in the real economy, reiterating some of his previous views. Read more
21 Aug 2023 Viewpoint Fixed income opportunities in a soft landing scenario After a difficult 2022, bonds may be poised for unusually high returns compared to historic averages. And not just in the US -- we see opportunities in European CLOs and RMBS. They offer double digit yields for short-dated debt and look very attractive on a relative value basis compared to domestic credit. Read more
4 Aug 2023 TwentyFour Blog Diverging dynamics in savings ratios As governments around the world provided support in various manners during the pandemic, savings ratios increased to levels that were twice as large as the previous all time highs in some countries. Felipe Villarroel takes a look at some countries' spending vs savings monthly data patterns and lays out what he thinks this means for fixed income investors. Read more