21 May 2018 TwentyFour Blog Italy Agreement: More Hope Than Expectation We are currently of the view that the market panic generated by the plan published by the new Italian government is a bit excessive. Read more
15 May 2018 TwentyFour Blog ABS Risk Tiering European ABS market performance and volatility have been remarkably stable since 2016, largely weathering broader credit weaknesses so far this year. Read more
14 May 2018 TwentyFour Blog How Concerned Is The Fed With The Yield Curve? After another week of yield curve flattening, we now have the 2s-10s curve in US Treasuries at just 43 basis points. Read more
9 May 2018 TwentyFour Blog China Demands More Attention in 2018 Paying attention to China will be even more important to investors than usual in 2018. Read more
8 May 2018 TwentyFour Blog What we are not doing in High Yield We have often started our portfolio discussions with clients this year with what we don’t like in fixed income. Unfortunately the list for 2018 is relatively long and quite large when measured on a market cap basis. Read more
4 May 2018 TwentyFour Blog Mixed message from HSBC HSBC released its Q1-2018 results this morning which were a little underwhelming with bottom line profit before tax a touch below estimates (down 4% on Q1-17) and return on equity of 7.5% (compared to 8.0% in Q1-17), but that aside the numbers give investors little concern. Read more
1 May 2018 TwentyFour Blog The Fed and The Treasury Will Also Drive The Yield Curve Shape Having written recently about our thoughts on how the yield curve might flatten, we should also note that whilst this, our base case scenario, is happening at the moment, there are a number of other potential strong influences that we need to monitor as they have the ability to prolong this flattening. Read more
30 Apr 2018 TwentyFour Blog Other Recessionary Indicators Having discussed the shape of the yield curve as a recessionary indicator already last week, we would like to elaborate on what other indicators we look at as fixed income investors to determine where we are in the economic cycle, which in turn determines how we position ourselves on the yield curve and whether we look to credit risks or government bond risks. Read more
26 Apr 2018 TwentyFour Blog ECB Update On Loan Availability Following on from Gary’s recent blog Credit Still Being Cycled, this week the ECB released their quarterly Euro Area Bank Lending Survey for the first quarter of 2018, and it paints a slightly different picture to the Bank of England’s report in one area in particular. Read more
25 Apr 2018 TwentyFour Blog Yield Curve Shape and Recessions The rapidly flattening US Treasury yield curve is prompting a lot of questions about the shape of the curve and it being a good predictor of upcoming recession. Read more
20 Apr 2018 TwentyFour Blog Unreliable Boyfriend Running Late For Dinner "One day hot, one day cold, and the people on the other side of the message are left not really knowing where they stand." Read more
18 Apr 2018 TwentyFour Blog Q2 Could Be The Best For Risk in 2018 As we now are well into the Q1 earnings season we have been debating how the current quarter could well be the best for risk in 2018. Read more