TwentyFour

CLO investors like to talk a lot about arbitrage, or rather the lack of it. Arbitrage is what is left of the monthly interest on the leverage loans in the CLO pool once the liabilities have been paid, and it is the main reason why a growing number of investors have been buying CLO equity in the last 18 months.

All banks’ highest quality capital is supposed to be permanent or perpetual. However, many bank regulators around the world allow banks to issue Additional Tier 1 Capital, colloquially known as ‘Coco’ bonds, as part of this capital base. These bonds are perpetual, but the bank has the option to call them after a specified period, typically five, seven or 10 years. These securities therefore tend to trade to the call date, and not to perpetuity, as investors rightly or wrongly assume that the banks will probably call and refinance these securities. The banks are under no obligation to do this, and some have said that that they would only do so if it was in their economic interest come the call date.

The year 2018 will go down in the history books as one of the most challenging we have faced in recent times, with price action in the fourth quarter being particularly brutal and difficult to respond to. When we wrote our outlook for 2019 at the start of December, we were reasonably cautious and felt it possible that prices could dislocate from fundamentals during the year, if markets started to price in the increasing likelihood of a more meaningful downturn or recession in 2020. We were not expecting this to happen in December, but it did, and it has left investors wondering whether this is the beginning of the end of the cycle, and whether months like December will be commonplace in 2019.

“…everybody’s having fun. Look to the future now, it’s only just begun.”

The dust is slowly settling after Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision, and more importantly the following press conference where Chairman Jerome Powell literally talked the market down.

“This time next year, Rodney…”

Bloomberg reported on Monday that since the European Central Bank started its Corporate Sector Purchase Program (CSPP) in June 2016, it has purchased €177bn of investment grade rated corporate bonds. Initially, as expected, spreads tightened rapidly, but since the first quarter of 2018, they have been gradually widening back out to pre-CSPP levels.

It is that time of year when we traditionally look ahead to the new year and make predictions on the performance of various asset classes, sectors and industries.

We have been discussing for a while what the quantifiable impacts of Italy’s populist government have been for the country’s economy.

There were sharp declines across global risk assets on Tuesday, led by tech stocks but with barely an asset class left unscathed.

On Monday my colleagues on TwentyFour’s Multi-Sector Bond desk published a blog on rising default risks in high yield credit. Dummen Orange, Douglas, Boparan, Moby, Galapagos and CMC Ravenna are some of the obvious under-pressure names held in loan funds and CLO portfolios that are trading at a significant discount in the market.

A quick look at the dashboard of 16 fixed income indices I track clearly shows the amount of pain experienced by investors so far this year. Of the 16 indices I follow, which include IG corporates, government bonds and high yield all denominated in sterling, euros and dollars, Bank CoCos, £ and € Sub Insurance, three hard currency corporate EM indices and the G7 govvie index, only two had a positive total return for the year at the end of October.