Flash Fixed Income: What would Trump do to Treasuries?

Despite higher interest rates and cost of living increases across jurisdictions, there is no sign as yet of any impact on issuance levels in European consumer ABS.

A lot has happened since our last blog about the state of affairs in the European High Yield (HY) market. At the time, the sector had just seen three of the largest capital structures of Altice France, Ardagh Group and Intrum AB announce restructuring advisors in quick succession, with growing fears that it would represent the start of a wider default trend.

On the latest Back to Basics webinar, George Curtis (Portfolio Management), from our Multi-Sector Bond team provided a comprehensive understanding of the key aspects of yield curves.

In this inaugural edition of Flash Fixed Income, we look at the highly unpredictable US presidential election and explain why a potential second Trump administration could limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to deliver more rate cuts.

Over the last few months in the Additional Tier 1 (AT1) market we have seen a growing trend of issuers “pre-funding” their transactions even earlier. In some cases, such as Belgium’s KBC and Austria’s Erste Bank, bonds with expected call dates in 2025 have been tendered and replaced with new issues over a year early.

Over the past decade, private credit has grown from a $400bn niche industry into a $1.6tr market that competes with more traditional asset classes for significant investor allocations.

After years of decline in China’s property market and limited, uncoordinated, and ultimately unsuccessful attempts by the country’s authorities to provide some sort of solution, details have emerged over the last few weeks of a more coherent plan to stop the bleeding.

George Curtis from the Multi-Sector Bond (MSB) team at TwentyFour Asset Management reflects on the third quarter of 2024 and its impact on credit and equity markets. Despite some mid-quarter volatility, overall performance remained strong, with government bonds leading the way.

Chris Bowie at TwentyFour Asset Management describes the third quarter of 2024 as a significant turning point in fixed income markets, marked by the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) for the first time in many years. This followed an earlier 25bp cut by the Bank of England (BoE), setting the scene for further rate cuts over the coming years.