Flash Fixed Income: Is term premium back?

Since the Federal Reserve first cut interest rates in September, we have seen the most aggressive rise in US Treasury yields of any cutting cycle over the past 40 years.

The recent rally in European fixed income has partly been driven by improved economic sentiment, falling inflation expectations, and a more accommodative monetary policy outlook from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE).

In a week when US core consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to 0.4% month-on-month and Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell told Congress the central bank was in “no hurry” to cut interest rates, many market participants have been surprised by the relatively muted reaction in US Treasuries (USTs).

Manufacturing data has been a relentless purveyor of bad news for the best part of the last 24 months, as abnormal growth rates post-Covid turned into a swampy contractionary trend from which the sector has struggled to emerge.

As we approach the end of the Q4 2024 earnings reporting season for banks, most are now out of their “blackout” periods which means bond issuance has resumed. Wednesday was an active day in primary markets with a couple of deals that are worth commenting on.

Markets had their first taste of Trump Tariffs 2.0 on Monday after levies on Mexican, Canadian and Chinese exports were announced over the weekend.

Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell had the honour of kicking off the 2025 season for the major central banks this week, swiftly followed by the chore of having to plead the fifth every time he was asked about a President Trump policy.

It has been two weeks since the primary market for collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) re-opened and 2025 has already proven to be quite a year from multiple angles.

TwentyFour Asset Management, the London and New York-based specialist fixed income investor, has announced the appointment of John Lehning as Head of US Sales.