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    Flash Fixed Income: Fiscal Friction - Sovereign heat, Corporate insulation
    France’s chronic government paralysis repeatedly created headlines this month, and fixed income markets are rightly worried about the sustainability of French government borrowing levels. Meanwhile, forecasts of a £50bn blackhole in the UK’s public finances are keeping gilt yields elevated and have made this November’s UK Budget a potential flashpoint.

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Insights Topic

Europe

Even in recession, defaults will be lower than previous cycles Teaser
16 May 2022 TwentyFour Blog

Even in recession, defaults will be lower than previous cycles

The vast majority of the high yield universe used the attractive funding conditions last year to term out their maturity profiles. In fact, 2022 maturities in both US and European high yield equate to just 1% of their respective indices.
Read more
The solace provided by a robust earnings season
4 May 2022 TwentyFour Blog

The solace provided by a robust earnings season

Earnings season is now in full swing, and it has undoubtedly been eventful. During the first quarter, companies have had to navigate multiple obstacles, including surging commodity prices, hawkish central bank policies, a Russian invasion, further supply chain disruptions caused by lockdowns in China, and dwindling consumer confidence.
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Growing CRE ABS offers diversification and yield Teaser
20 Apr 2022 TwentyFour Blog

Growing CRE ABS offers diversification and yield

CRE ABS offers conservatively structured debt features, with generally short duration exposure and a spread premium rewarding the more intensive underwriting and due diligence required.
Read more
Multi-Sector Bond Quarterly Update – April 2022 Teaser
13 Apr 2022 Market Update

Multi-Sector Bond Quarterly Update – April 2022

TwentyFour Partner and Portfolio Manager, Eoin Walsh, discusses market conditions in Q1 2022 and provides his outlook for the year ahead.
Watch now
Rationality will win out for AT1s in the real world Teaser
11 Apr 2022 TwentyFour Blog

Rationality will win out for AT1s in the real world

Despite the ECB's recent review bringing some previously debated points surrounding AT1s to the forefront, we believe any changes would create undesired, real-world consequences if implemented.
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The evidence doesn’t point to recession
25 Mar 2022 TwentyFour Blog

The evidence doesn’t point to recession

Growth in 2022 is likely to be above historical averages for most developed economies, even after adjusting forecasts for the impact of the Russian invasion.
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Powell confirms Fed pivot is complete
22 Mar 2022 TwentyFour Blog

Powell confirms Fed pivot is complete

Officially the Fed pivoted from its ‘transitory’ inflation rhetoric in December last year.
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Wave of inflation means companies will sink or swim on pricing power
17 Mar 2022 TwentyFour Blog

Wave of inflation means companies will sink or swim on pricing power

Soaring inflation was already a dominant theme for markets coming into 2022. The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have only exacerbated its expected rise, and pushed its expected peak further out.
Read more
14 Mar 2022 TwentyFour Blog

Investors face conundrum on government bond allocations

We think a base case that central banks will follow a more measured monetary policy path than markets are currently pricing in is reasonable given the current backdrop.
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10 Mar 2022 Market Update

Letter to investors

Global bond markets have moved sharply in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as investors have tried to assess the impact of an unprecedented raft of financial and economic sanctions. Mark Holman looks at the potential implications for inflation and growth, and highlights some areas of fixed income where yields have risen to near-crisis levels.
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Rising HY defaults more than priced in
9 Mar 2022 TwentyFour Blog

Rising HY defaults more than priced in

Default rate estimations depend on how you define defaults and what index you use, but there is no doubt we are at record lows in European high yield at the moment.
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Investors are overreacting to banks’ Russia exposure
3 Mar 2022 TwentyFour Blog

Investors are overreacting to banks’ Russia exposure

European bank equity has been among the hardest hit sectors since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as fears of losses and a flight to quality have prompted investors to change positioning.
Read more
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