Insights & News

US

  • A Clearer Technical Picture

    The markets had an interesting day to digest yesterday, with elections in the Netherlands and an FOMC rate decision making for a potential bump in the road for the current rally. As it happens, it was only the UK government that suffered the bump, with Chancellor Philip Hammond falling victim to the Ides of March after being forced into an embarrassing U-turn of his proposed National Insurance tax rise; good […]

  • Default Rates

    It’s been a while since we commented on this, but as spread levels in European high yield converge on the post-global financial crisis lows that we hit in Q2 2014, we need to be confident that the default rate is continuing to be well anchored. Source: BAML   Here in Europe, the 12 month trailing default rate remains stable and importantly, at a very low level, with the February data showing […]

  • Riskless Rather Than Risk Off

    We have come to that point again when the risk-off portions of fixed income portfolios may well present us with much unwanted mark-to-market risk. The US market has rapidly responded to the various Fed Governor comments that a rates hike next week is now firmly on the cards, and that the pace of hiking in 2017 will be far more meaningful compared to the previous two years. US Treasury yields […]

  • Politics Takes Centre Stage

    If anyone is looking for an appetiser for what 2017 may bring us from a markets point of view, this weekend could be the perfect case study as politics takes centre stage. In Austria we have a re-run of the presidential election where Norbert Hofer the leader of the far right Freedom Party of Austria is standing against Alex van der Bellen of the Green Party. Polls suggest there is […]

  • Yields Higher, Time to Act?

    The last week has seen sharp moves in the world’s risk free rates driven by sentiment from across the Atlantic that the new Trump administration will initiate a large fiscal stimulus plan that will spur growth at the expense of inflation. A similar sentiment has been hanging over the gilt market, as participants anticipate the content of next week’s autumn statement by the new Chancellor. The market’s initial conclusions in […]

  • Cash Trumps Volatility

    Now that the dust is beginning to settle on the unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election, investors are beginning to take stock of the market reaction and the new landscape they face. To recap on the volatility yesterday, much of which took place in the early hours as the electoral colleges began to announce their results, the Dow Jones equity futures dropped by almost 1,000 points […]

  • Senior Loan Officers Survey

    We have previously commented that the central banks’ surveys to their banking systems give us a really good guide to where we are in the cycle, as well as providing a great deal of colour on loan demand, supply and pricing. The US 3rd quarter survey, known as the Senior Loan Officers Survey was released on Monday, and was eagerly anticipated by us here at TwentyFour as prior surveys had […]

  • US elections and the search for a risk free asset

    The US election campaigning has been nothing short of sensational. As a patriotic American I have listened to the ever unfolding rhetoric with shock and fatigue and can understand why the world is following this race with real concern. We appear to be confronted with candidates that seem set on self-destruction with a varying combination of isolationism and anti-business rhetoric. So what impact will the US elections have on the […]

  • US $ Libor

    22nd September 2016 Previously we mentioned the spike in US $ 3 month Libor essentially acting as a rate hike in the US. The graph below shows that over the last 3 months we have seen an increase of 24 basis points in this important benchmark rate. The reason for this is a technical one, but one that may not go away in a hurry, which is why we think the […]

  • FOMC Thoughts

    Today is the start of the much awaited two day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, so what can we expect? Markets are currently placing just a 20% chance of a rate hike tomorrow, is that fair? To us that sounds low given the speeches that we’ve listened to from various Fed officials. Both Fischer and Yellen have hinted that two rate hikes this year are still possible, […]

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